Claudia Sheinbaum, a prominent 61-year-old scientist and left-wing politician, has emerged as the key figure to lead Mexico in a new era. Following the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Sheinbaum faces the challenge of addressing one of the largest crises of violence the country has experienced, with almost 190,000 violent deaths during the term of her predecessor. This situation has not only deeply impacted public safety, but has also slowed the country's economic growth.

Sheinbaum's victory in the Mexican elections was expected, but the magnitude of her victory was surprising. With more than 60% of the vote, Sheinbaum will become Mexico's first president on October 1. Her party, Morena (National Regeneration Movement), has secured a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies and probably the Senate, allowing it to move forward with constitutional reforms that had stalled in previous years.

These are the main economic challenges that await the new Government headed by Sheinbaum, the first woman president in the

Economic and Security Challenges

Violence and Insecurity

Although violence in Mexico is not uniform and is concentrated in specific areas, its impact on investment and economic growth is significant. Organized crime has infiltrated key industries such as agriculture and mining, exacerbating insecurity. AMLO's "Hugs, not bullets" policy has failed to significantly reduce homicides, and the country continues to record more than 100,000 missing people.

Sheinbaum has promised to attack impunity and focus on the underlying causes of violence. Her strategy includes expanding youth programs, strengthening the National Guard, improving police intelligence and fostering cooperation between institutions in charge of security.

Michael Shifter, an expert at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, maintains that "the ominous growth of organized crime and flourishing cartels is the most daunting problem that Sheinbaum will need to confront." The president-elect promises to eradicate impunity and, like AMLO, focus on the causes of violence by expanding programs for youth, strengthening the National Guard, more police intelligence and cooperation between institutions in charge of security.

Economy: Challenges and Opportunities

Sheinbaum inherits a fiscal deficit of almost 6%, the highest in 25 years, and an average economic growth of only 0.8% in the last six years. To finance direct aid to 25 million Mexicans and carry out other reforms, she needs to increase state revenues. The commitment to "nearshoring", which involves the relocation of the production of foreign companies to northern Mexico, is a key strategy, but its success will depend on improvements in security, infrastructure and water and energy supply.

Water is a crucial issue, with per capita availability that has decreased 68% since 1960. Sheinbaum, with a doctorate in environmental engineering, has promised to increase investment in clean energy, contrasting with AMLO's commitment to fossil energy and financial support for the indebted Pemex.

Pamela Starr, a Mexico expert at the University of Southern California, sums up the situation: "You need to spend money on many things, and there is no money. The infrastructure is obsolete. Electricity is a problem. Pemex is a problem."

Carlos Ramírez, from the risk consultancy Integralia, warns that "nearshoring is not Mexico's great lifeline" and that its eventual success depends on improving security and infrastructure, water and energy supply.

Alfredo Coutiño, director of Moody's Analytics, points out that the next government will inherit a country with "a financial hole that will limit the room for maneuver." Sheinbaum has stated that he will continue with the current president's projects and add some of his own, but the challenge will be to find the necessary financial resources to do so without triggering an economic crisis due to an uncontrolled increase in debt.

Relationship with the United States: A Diplomatic Challenge

The period of power transition in Mexico coincides with the electoral campaign in the United States, the country's main trading partner. The bilateral relationship is influenced by security, migration and trade issues. The reelection of Joe Biden or the return of Donald Trump in November will be a critical variable that could significantly alter the scenario.

The relationship between Mexico and the United States is also marked by migration and fentanyl trafficking. Sheinbaum has indicated that he will maintain a loving relationship ity and mutual respect with the United States, always defending Mexicans abroad.

Carlos A. Pérez Ricart, professor at CIDE, a Mexican public research center, explains that the election in the United States is “the real variable that will modify scenarios.” If Joe Biden loses and Trump wins, who promises to set up migrant detention camps and deport them en masse, "the biggest challenge that Mexico will face is uncertainty." The trade policy of the northern neighbor is one of the main axes of the US electoral campaign, in which the Democrat, the current president Joe Biden, and the Republican and former president Donald Trump will face each other again. Managing the complex relationship with the United States poses another challenge for Sheinbaum, amid uncertainty about who will win the November presidential election and the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA) in 2026, for which Washington may demand compensation. .

Energy and Infrastructure

To capitalize on nearshoring and attract investment, Mexico needs substantial improvements in its energy supply, especially renewable energy, and in the modernization of basic transportation and water infrastructure. Sheinbaum has promised to create 100 new industrial parks across the country to take advantage of business relocation near the United States.

Pemex, the state oil company, faces a difficult financial situation. Sheinbaum plans to renegotiate its debt and refocus the company on renewable energy, although government fiscal support for Pemex will continue to be necessary for several years.

Carlos Torres, president of the BBVA financial group, the first bank in Mexico, assured that "if Mexico is capable of solving this bottleneck and also the existing ones in transportation infrastructure or water supply and adopts the correct measures in energy matters," Foreign direct investment will increase “very significantly” in the country.

Infrastructure Mega Projects

The outgoing government has promoted several infrastructure megaprojects that Sheinbaum will continue. Among them, the Mayan Train stands out, which will connect five states in the Mexican southeast, the Tulum International Airport and the Interoceanic Railway. These projects seek to promote regional development and tourism, as well as improve connectivity and trade. The Felipe Ángeles International Airport and the Mexico-Toluca Interurban Train are other key projects that are expected to boost the country's economy and infrastructure.

The outgoing government bet heavily on infrastructure megaprojects. The controversial Mayan Train stands out, which will connect five states in southeastern Mexico to promote their socioeconomic development, despite criticism for its environmental impact. To support tourism, the Tulum International Airport was built in Quintana Roo. In addition, the Interoceanic Railway was strengthened to connect the ports of Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz to boost international trade and passenger transportation. Another emblematic project is the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA), built to alleviate air traffic in the center of the country after the cancellation of the Texcoco Airport. The AIFA, increasingly crowded, will have an extension of the Suburban Train to connect with the center of Mexico City. Additionally, the Mexico-Toluca Interurban Train, now called 'El Insurgente', began under Enrique Peña Nieto and was taken up by AMLO, and is partially functional.

Claudia Sheinbaum faces a path full of challenges when assuming the presidency of Mexico. Violence, the fiscal deficit and the need to improve infrastructure are some of its most urgent challenges. However, with a strong popular mandate and a focus on democracy and plurality, Sheinbaum has the opportunity to lead a significant transformation in the country.

Her success will depend on her ability to implement key reforms, improve security and attract investments that drive sustainable economic growth. With a clear vision and a commitment to democratic values, Sheinbaum is well positioned to mark a new era in Mexican history.

Claudia Sheinbaum has been elected as the next president of Mexico, marking the beginning of a new era in the country. With 96.21% of the votes counted, Sheinbaum, candidate of the ruling Morena party, obtained a resounding 59.35% of the votes. This victory places her more than 30 points away from her main competitor, Xóchitl Gálvez, who represented the opposition alliance between the PRI, the PAN and the PRD, and which obtained an average of 27.9% of the votes. In third place, with 10.41% of the votes, was Jorge Álvarez Máynez, from Citizen Movement.

Sheinbaum, who will be the first woman in the history of Mexico to occupy the National Palace, will take office on October 1, succeeding the current president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). This triumph for Sheinbaum is not only significant because of her wide margin of victory, but also because of what she represents in terms of political continuity.

To understand the reasons behind this historic victory, it is essential to examine the key factors that led Claudia Sheinbaum to win the election.

Why did Claudia Sheinbaum win the elections?

Popularity of AMLO and the state machinery

Claudia Sheinbaum was greatly benefited by the high popularity of Andrés Manuel López Obrado r (AMLO), with whom she shares political alliances. The president's endorsement, which has a 60% approval level, exerted a positive influence on Sheinbaum's candidacy, further consolidating her support.

Furthermore, Sheinbaum managed to establish two fundamental perceptions in the collective imagination, especially among the popular sectors. First of all, she built a total connection with López Obrador , avoiding any hint of disagreement between them. This association became a guarantee of continuity in policies and the protection of AMLO for those who revere the acting president.

Secondly, she projected an image of seriousness, discipline and scientific competence that generated confidence in many, including the international press. While López Obrador's lack of knowledge did not worry her followers ("she may know little, but she is like us"), Sheinbaum inspired confidence on the contrary ("She has knowledge, she is a professional") .

In addition to this, she benefited from the extensive national network of the ruling party , Morena, and she had the support of the State machinery .

According to Gustavo Urbina, an academic at the College of Mexico, "Since the hegemony of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), Morena has probably become the most successful party model at the national level."

However, it is important to consider how this scheme will change with the figure of Claudia as AMLO's successor, according to Urbina.

On the other hand, Shifter highlighted AMLO's weight in the nomination of Sheinbaum as a candidate, who, although she won an internal party consultation, was always seen as the president's favorite.

"AMLO's supporters trust her judgment and have come together to support her successor," Shifter stressed.

Finally, it is essential to recognize that there was a significant political operation during the elections in favor of Sheinbaum's option. This political operation, which was not only limited to emotional support for López Obrador, but was also supported by all the government's social programs, was a determining factor in Sheinbaum's success.

An academic profile

Claudia Sheinbaum stands out for her academic profile, very different from that of the president, which has generated a more neutral perception compared to him. While López Obrador can inspire love or animosity, Sheinbaum is seen as a more technical and conversational figure. According to María Eugenia Valdés, an expert in political processes, this difference in styles is key to understanding why Sheinbaum has even managed to surpass her mentor in votes. Valdés points out that López Obrador has generated fear in some political and economic sectors, while Sheinbaum presents a more conciliatory image Dora.

Violeta Vázquez-Rojas highlights Sheinbaum's ability to dialogue with those sectors that felt wronged by the president. This strategy allowed disenchanted people to find in Sheinbaum a figure they could trust and vote for. Specifically, the academic and middle-class vote was attracted to Sheinbaum's less confrontational style, offering a kind of reconciliation with the Fourth Transformation.

Analysts agree that Sheinbaum's conduct has been impeccable. Being a leftist woman, her career was never associated with the PRI or the PAN , which makes her coherent with her principles and linked to social causes. Her experience as a student leader, university professor and researcher, along with her participation in international organizations, give her a modern left-wing image that has benefited her campaign.

On the other hand, the political scientist mentions another factor in favor of Sheinbaum: the support of the party in territorial work. By not having to worry so much about this work, the candidate was able to focus on her message and her proposals, which gave her an additional advantage during the campaign.

Opposition Weakness

The alliance between the PRI, the PAN and the PRD failed to gain the trust of voters. This coalition never achieved full cohesion. However, beyond this, it turned out to be an impossible task to eliminate or at least reduce the deep-rooted discredit of the parties that have governed Mexico since 2000: the National Action Party (PAN) and the former Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). This constant reminder of incompetence and corruption, frequently emphasized by Sheinbaum, had a significant impact on Gálvez's campaign, representing an innate and insurmountable obstacle.

The focus of the campaign was on how a victory for the ruling party would weaken the institutions, but the population does not feel loyalty to institutions like the SCJN because in previous governments they did not perceive beneficial results.

Finally, Gálvez made a series of mistakes in a campaign where he could not afford any. Two of these errors are especially notable. First, she failed to respond quickly and effectively to the attacks directed by López Obrador against her integrity and honesty, just after announcing her candidacy. She was accused of illicit enrichment during her previous charges, improperly approving construction permits, and awarding contracts with favoritism. Although Gálvez denied these accusations, she was clearly not prepared to face this onslaught.

Jorge Zepeda Patterson, writer and analyst, highlights a crucial error of the opposition during this period. According to him, the opposition's mortal sin lies in its lack of attention to the "real, current and genuine discontent" of many Mexicans. Zepeda Patterson points out that the opposition's strategy focused on discrediting the current government, showing López Obrador's demagoguery or inefficiency on issues such as violence or access to health.

However, according to Zepeda Patterson, this tactic has not worked because people perceive that, at least, the current government is trying to address these problems, while the traditional parties do not even try. This perception leads the population to maintain their support for the current government, despite its deficiencies, due to the lack of credible alternatives on the part of the opposition.

Social programs

Thesocial programs sponsored by AMLO have been a fundamental piece in the continuous support for the current government. Now, the population enjoys programs that offer around $2,000 pesos, along with average salaries of between $14,000 and $16,000 pesos, marking a notable change from the low minimum wages of the past.

This improvement in the quality of shared life has strengthened loyalty towards the government, while the idea of ​​​​defending abstract institutions like the SCJN has lost relevance compared to the tangible benefits provided by the government.

Voters act rationally, endorsing what they consider essential to their daily well-being. This was reflected in a pre-election survey, where 64% of respondents receiving official assistance expressed their intention to vote for Sheinbaum.

On the other hand, those not receiving these benefits showed lower support, with Gálvez outperforming Sheinbaum by 11 points. With more than 30 million households benefiting from some form of government aid, this factor could have been decisive in Sheinbaum's victory. Social programs have been a crucial aspect that has shaped the political and electoral landscape.

What other reasons do you think were fundamental for Claudia Sheinbaum to come to power? What are the challenges she has facing her six-year term?